GOGOL-DHIGA MAWDUUCA.
Mid kamid ah caqabadaha ugu muhiimsan ee wakhtigan la joogo waa dhibaatada kor u kaca sicir-bararka. Saamaynteeda qof kastaa wuu dareemi karaa ha ku kala duwanaadaan xaddiga ay leegtahaye. ama ha noqdo injineer, dhakhtar, qareen, shaqaale ama cid kastaba oo bulshada kamid ah. Sicir-bararku waa dhexdhexaad marka uu dooranayo dhibanayaasha aan waxba galabsan. Nolosha dalka Soomaaliland sida ay u qaalisantahay iyo dadkeedu dhaqaale ahaan halkay joogaan isma laha oo waa kaaf iyo kala dheeri. Marbaad waxa aad is odhanaysaa dadkani qalbigay qani ka yihiin ileen cidhiidhigaa uma aysan dulqaateene. Sannadba shay baa sarre u kacaya cidna ka hadli mayso dad iyo dawladba. Aduunyada shay sare wuu u yara kici karaa duruufo yimi awgii balse dib ayuu halkiisii ugu soo laabtaa marka duruufti dhamaato, balse halkan shaygaasi wuu qaaliyoobay mooyee wuu jabay ma maqal inta aan garaadsaday. 500-ta ee shilling mar bay ahayd baalash iyo shaah hadda saw ma xasuusatid markii intaas nususaacaha iskuulka iyo malcaamadaha u qaaadan jirney balse maanta 1500 shilling ayaa intaas kuu jaraya, saddex laab ayay qiimo dhacday lacagteeni iyo wax kabadan hadii xisaab sax oo ku dhisan macluumaad la soo ururiyay lagu shaqeeyo. Hadaba aynu hoos ugu daadagno mawduuceeni. Akhris wacan.
1. WAA MAXAY SIXIR-BARAR?
Erayga “sicir-bararka” asal ahaan waxaa loo gudbiyaa korodhka xadiga wareega lacagta. Wali qaar kamida dhaqaalayahanadu kalmadan waxay u isticmaalan habkan. Si kastaba ha ahaatee badi dhaqaalayahanadu maanta waxay kalmada “sicir-bararka” la xidhiidhiyaan kor u kaca heerka qiimaha. Sida u dhaqaale-yahankii Coulbourn ku qeexay sicir-bararka “marka sicir-bararka lagu jiro, lacag aad u fara badan ayaa eryanaysa waxoogaa yar oo alaab ah” Milton friedman ayaa isna ku qeexay “sicir bararku waxa kaliya uu ka sameysmi karmaa korodhka tirada lacagta ka dhaqsaha badan wax soosaarka” Fikir ahaan, sicir bararka waxa looga jeedaa isbedel ku yimaada qiimaha oo dhan si guud ahaaneed, balse aan ahayn kaliya isbedel (korodh) qiime kaliyaata. Tusaale ahaan hadii dadku ay doortaan in ay soo iibsadaan baamiye (qajaar) badan, tamaandhadana waxyar ka gataan. Sidaas awgeed baamiyuhu qaali bu noqonayaa halka tamaandhadu qiimaheedu hoos u dhacayo. Hadaba isbedel kani xidhiidh lama laha sicir bararka, waxay ka turjumayaan kala doorasho dhadhameed oo hal shay laga wareegay mid kalena lagu doorsaday. Sicir-bararku waxa uu la xidhiidhaa qiimaha lacagta laftiisa. 2.
2.SICIR BARARKA IYO SOMALILAND.
Haddii aan ku laabano soyaalkeena taariikhda Soomaaliland,Sannadku markuu ahaa 1994-kii ayaa dawladii uu Madaxweyne ka ahaa Marxuun Maxamed X. Ibrahim Egal (Alle ha u naxaristee) dalka u soo daabacday lacag cusub oo loogu magac daray Somaliland Shilling SL.SH). qiimihii ay lahayd lacagtu markaa wakhtigan ma laha, Tusaale ahaan Bishii November 1994-kii $1 wuxuu u dhigmayay 50 Somaliland Shillings ah, halka uu maanta $1 u dhigmo 7500/8000 Somaliland shillings ah. Xilligii xukuumaddii Cigaal (AHUN) sicir-bararku marku bilaabmay waxa dhici jirtay in marka aad meheradaha ku jirtaan ee aad wax ka iibsanaysaan siiba hudheelada adiga oo cuntada afka ku haya ayaa lagu odhanayay qiimihii cuntadu waa uu isbedelay intaas iyo intaasu kor u kacay ee sidaas u la socda. Maalinba maalinta ka danbaysay inuu kor u kaco mooyee hoos ba u dhici jirin. Tusaale ayaynu u soo qaadanaynaa dal kamida dalalka Afrika oo sicir-bararku si ba’an u saameeyay.
Waddanka Zimbabwe markii loo aqoonsaday jamhuuriyad madax banaan waxay ahayd 1980, lacagteeda cusubi waxa ay ka awood badnayd US dollar-ka. Intii lagu jiray sideetamaadkii 80s Zimbabwe waxa ay ku jirtey dhaqaale caafimaad qaba oo cadaaladi ku dheehnayd inkasta oo waxoogaa xasilooni daro dawladdeed ka hoos jirtey maamulkii madaxweyne Robert Mugabe. Xasillooni darrada dhaqaalaha iyo siyaasadda ayaa kordhay 1990-kii iyo horaantii 2000 kadib markii Mugabe fuliyay dib u habayn dhul su’aalo ka taagnaayeen iyo dhaqan galinta siyaasad maaliyadeed oo aan haboonayn. Musuqmaasuqa waa uu baahay. Dagaalada waxa dhiirigalinayay damac ka sahay qaadanayay lacagta sida bilaa xadidaada loo daabacanayo. Dadweynaha ayaa bilaabay in aysan ku kalsoonaan lacagtii Zimbabwean-ka, taas oo sannad kasta cabirka sicir-bararku marayay sadex godley laga soo bilaabo 2000-2005. Badhtamihii 2006 heerka sicir-bararku wuxuu ahaa 1,281%, sannadii 2007 kiina wuxuu noqday 66,212%, sannadkii ku xigay 2008 wuxuu qaraacayay 231,150,888%. Halka u saraysa ee sicir-bararka Zimbabwe wuxuu dhacay bishiii November 2008, qiimaha dhabta ah 24 saacadoodba way labanlaabmayeen. Qallin beensalkii kugu joogay halka senti November kowdeedii, wuxuu dhamaadka bisha noqonayaa $10.7 million. Sicir-bararkii dunida ugu xumaa ayaa ka dhacay waliba nooca loo yaqaan “hyperinflation”, lacagtii waddankana toilet-paper-ka ayaa ka qiimo batay. Hadii aad keeryoone lacaga soo walwaalsho wax uu ku jarayaa ma aysan jirin. Sicir-bararkan baahsan waxa keentay daabacadii lacagta faraha badnayd ee maamulkii ka jiray Zimbabwe ku kacay. 2009 kii lacagtii dalka si rasmi ah ayaa loo joojiyay isticmaalkeedii iyadoo dollarka lagu badashay. Tusaalahani waxa ina tusayaa halka lagu socdo haddii aan wax laga qaban inta uu sahlan yahay. In la helo bangi dhexe oo sibuuxda u shaqaynaya iyo bangiyo ganacsi waa xalka dhibaatooyinka dhaqaale ee waddanka ka jirta.
3. SIDEE QIIMO DHACA LACAGTU SAAMAYN UGU LEEDAHAY SICIR-BARARKA?
Haddii lacagta uu qiimo dhac ku jiro, qiimo dhacani wuxuu sababi karaa in sicir-bararku sii kordho. Qiimo-dhac micnaheedu waa marka lacagta dalka la sarrifayo ay qiime ahaan ka yaraato lacagta qalaad ee jeerkaas lagu badalanayo. Kolba heerka ay ka yartahay waa inta qiimo-dhac lacagtaada haysta. Hadaba marka lacagtaadu qiimo-dhacsantahay wax soo dajintu aad bay qaali u tahay lkn wax dhoofinta ayaa kuu jaban. Sidaa darteed waxaynu helaynaa: • Sicir barar lasoo dajistay (Imported inflation). Qiimaha alaabta lasoo dajiyay sare ayuu ukici doonaa maxaa yeelay aad bay ugu qaalisanaayeen markii laga soo iibsanayay dabada. • Baahidaha gudaha oo sare u kacda. Jabnida wax dhoofinta waxay kordhinaysaa baahida uu waddanku u qabo inuu wax dhoofsado. Sidaa aawadeed waxa korodh ku imanayaa baahida wadareed, waxa markaas imanayaa Sicir-bararka baahidu riixayso (demand-push-inflation) • Niyad yar si ay u dhinto qiimaha (Less incentive to cut costs). Soo-saareyaasha kuwa wax dhoofiyaa waxay arkaan horumar xaga tartanka ay kula jiraan shirkadaha kale iyagoon samayn wax dadaal ah. Qaar baa ku doodi kara in tani yarayn karto niyadii ay u hayeen in ay hoos udhigaan kharashaadka, sidaas daraaddeedna waxa aynu la kulmaynaa sicir-barar sare oo muddo dheer qaata.
4. SAAMAYNTA UU QIIMA-DHACA LACAGTA SOMALILAND EE KA YIMI SICIR-BARARKA KU YEESHAY BULSHADA. Bulshada Somaliland laba qaybood ayay u kala baxaan marka saamaynta qiima-dhaca lacagtu timaado, mar dollarka ayaa qaali noqda (sida badiba dhacda) waxaana faa’iido jooga qolada dollarka ku qaadata mushaharkooda ( shaqaalaha hay’adaha, shirkadaha bareefadka iwm) waxaa markaa cabanaya qoladii mushaharka lacagta Somaliland Shilingta ku qaadanayay (Shaqaalaha Dawladda). Marka uu hoos u dhaco dollarkuna dhanka kale ayay giraantu ka wareegaysaa. Marka xaaladan lagu jiro Qoysaska awoodoodii wax iibsi ayaa hoos u dhacaysa masalan $100-kii dollar shalay wuxuu u goynayay maanta u jari maayo. Sicir-bararka ka yimaada qiima dhaca lacagta waa ka u badan ee waddanka ka jira ee wali aan loo helin xal. Kow iyo laba ma aha dhaqdhaqaaqyada lagu xalinayo sicir-bararka ee waddankan masuuliyiintiisu warbaahinada ka sii daayeen balse laab-la-kaca iyo caadifada ahaa ee afar cisho kadib wax walibana halkoodii kusoo laabteen. 5. Qaybaha sicirbararka Dugsiga Keynesian ayaa aaminsan in sicir bararku yahay natiijada cadaadiska dhaqaale sida kor u kaca kharashaadka wax-soosaarka ama korodhka baahida wadareed. Gaar ahaan waxay u kala saaraan laba qaybood oo waawayn: sicir bararka qiimuhu riixayo (Cost push inflation) iyo Sicir bararka baahidu jiidayso (Demand pull inflation). Cost push inflation: wuxuu yimaadaa marka kor u kac ku yimaado kharashaadkii wax soo saarka ee warshadaha. sida qiimahii dhulka, mushaharkii shaqaalaha, qiimahii qalabka iyo khidmadii ikhtiraacayaasha fikradaha ganacsi intaas oo sare u kaca. Demand pull inflation: waa marka qiimayaashu korodh ku yimaado taas oo ay sababtay baahida wadareed AD ayaa ka batay dalabyada wadareed AS. Dheelitir la’aanta tani waxay horseeday in lacag aad u badani eryato badeecadaha iyo adeegyada aadka u yar. Tusaale ahaan, marka shakhsiyaad badani ay rabaan in ay iibsadaan mobilada smartphone oo cusub oo tiradiisu xadidantahay, qiimuhu saw sare u kici maayo. Waa sababta loogu magac daray sicir-bararka baahidu jiidayso.
6. MAXAA SABABAY Sicir bararka SOMALILAND?
Dhowr kan arrimood ee hoos ku qoran ayaan soo ururiyay intii cilmigayga ahay, haddii ay jiraan qaar kale oo maankaaga ka guuxaya door bidaysana in aad ku dari karto fadlan lana wadaag. • Daabacaada lacagta Faraha badan Daabacaada lacagta waxa masuuliyadeeda leh dawladda gaar ahaan bangiga dhexe oo go’aamin kara in loo baahanyahay daabacaad lacag cusub iyo in aanay haboonayn. Nasiib darro waddankeena bangigii dhexe ma shaqeeyo, waa bakhaaro lacagaha lagu xareeyo oo mushaharka shaqaalaha dowladdana laga bixiyo. Taas waxay sababtay in layska soo daabaco lacagaha iyadoo ay ka danbayso dano siyaasi aan aysan loo eegayn dhaqaalaha dalka lacagtani ma dhaawac bay ku keenaysaa mise kabniin. Sannadkii 2011, xukuumada hadda talada haysa waxa ay soo daabacday lacago cusub oo dheeraad ah walibana kuwii hore ka duwan. Isticmaalkii 50 slsh iyo 100 shillin meesha ayay ka baxday markii la keenay 1000 iyo 5000 ee Shilling, waxa ay kale oo sababtay in qiimaca-dhaca lacagta dalku hoos u dhaco wixii uu 100-ka shilling goyn jiray maanta 500-ta shilling ayaa goysa. Hadii mar ay 500-ta ee shilling caasi (lacag fudud) la odhan jiray maanta qarbash (lacag culus) ayay tahay, intii lacagtan xajmiga weyn lasoo daabicin waxa jirtey in marka aad wax sarifanayso aad door bidaysay 500 Shilling halka 50 Shilling iyo 100 Shilling qarbash culays ah ahaayeen, Maantana waad garan kartaa halka arrinku marayo. Akhriste adiga wakhtigan aad akhriyayso qoraalkan waxa aan hubaa adna aad hubtaa in aan jeebkaaga ama kaygaba laga soo helayn 50 Shillingama 100 Shilling.
• Isticmaalka Zaad-ka iyo E-dahabka Hadii bangiga dhexe ama dawladdu lacag soo daabacan jirtey halkan zaadka & E-dahabka waxa laga daabici karaa lacago kolba intii loo baahdo aanay cidna ka warhayn. Lanbaro system-ka lagalinayo kolba intii loo baahdo oo aanay waxdhib ah ku qaadanayn waa xididka sicir-bararka ka taagan dalka. Isku dheeli tirka alaabta iyo xadiga lacagta suuqa wareegaya waxa ay yaraysaa sicir bararka, markasta oo lacagta waddanka taala iyo alaabta taala kala bataan fillo inuu unkamo sicir-barar. Somalida ayaa ku maahmaahda “isu haye iska hagrado” hadaad awoodo in aad lacag inta aad doonto samaysan karto maxaa kuu diidi kara in aad malaayiin daabacato? Jawaabtu waa xagaaga. Isticmaalka badan ee aynu labadan program iskugu soo biyo shubanay ee badiyaa ku salaysan adeegsiga lacagta dollarka waxa uu qayb wayn ka qaatay in wax kasta lagu iibiyo dollar. Alaab kasta oo meheradaha suuqa taala waxa qiimaheedu ku salaysan yahay waa dollarka. Waxa ay nahay waddan dual currency isticmaalaya lkn nasiib darro lacagtoodii kasii baxayso. Takale ee kamida dhibka ay lacagahan figures ka ahi inoo horseedeen ayaa ah xoojinta hoos u dhac kasta oo ku imanayay lacagta dalka.
• Fadhiidnimada Bangiga Dhexe. Fadhiid goorma ayaa la noqdaa? Waa markasta oo laga gaabiyo ama hakad ku yimaado hannaankii shaqo ee qof u yaalay ama urur. Bangi dhexe waa aynu samaysanay uun lkn se marna looma dhigin sees iyo rukuno adag oo maamulida lacagaha wadi kara. Hawlgabnimada ugu wayn waxa u sabab ah waddanka oo aan lahayn bangiyo ganacsi. Daabicida lacagta, jaangoynta sarifka lacagaha, maamulida daymaha dalka, kormeerka dhamaan shaqooyinka hay’adaha maaliyadeed gaar ahaan bangiyada ganacsiga, fulinta siyaasadaha monetary policy iyo fiscal policy marka uu dalku galo sicir-barar iyo sicir-jabka intaas ayuu qabtaa bangi dhexe. Markaa hadii intaas laga waayo fadhiid in lagu tilmaamo waa ay noqonaysaa. Helitaanka bangi dhexe oo si buuxda u shaqaynayaa waa bilawga dabar go’a sicir-bararka iyo wixii lahalmaala.
• Isbedbedelka Sarifka lacagaha Sarrif maalinba in taagan, wakhti aanu xukumayn, dawladdi xukumayn oo faraha shacabka inyar oo tirsan u galay dhibka ay leedahay waa mida ina ragaadisay ee dhaqaalaha dalka inuu horumaro ka hortaagan. Inta badan lacagta dalka ayaa dhibanaha ah cishaba in qiimaheedi kamida ayaa hoos loo ridayaa. Xakamaynta xadiga sarrifka lacagaha waa ta yarayn karta isbedbedelka joogtada ah ee aan ku salaysnay wakhti cayiman.
7. SIDEE LAGU XALINKARAA SICIR BARARKA?
Dhowr siyaasadood ayaa loo isticmaalaa dawaynta sicir-bararka marka uu dhaqaalaha ku dhaco dawadaana waxa badh haya bangiga dhexe inta kalena dawladda, halkan hoose ayaa aan mid mid isku dayi doonaa in aan sharax kooban ka bixiyo inta aqoontayda ah. Sicir-bararka waxa lagu dhimmi karaa siyaasadaha hoos u dhigaya koboca baahida wadareed (Growth of AD) iyo siyaasadaha xoojinaya xadiga koboca dalabyada (aggregate supply AS). Fiscal policy:
i. Xakamaynta baahida wadareed (aggregate demand) waa muhiim hadii sicir-bararka la rabo in la xadido. Hadii dowladdu rumaysantahay in Baahida wadareed (AD) ay aad u badantahay, waxay dooran kartaa adkaynta siyaasad maaliyadeedka (tighten fiscal policy) iyadoo dhimaysa kharashaadkeeda ay ku bixiso danta guud iyo waxbarashada ama lacagta daryeelka (welfare payments).
ii. Waxay dooran kartaa dawladdu in ay sare u qaado cashuura tooska ah (direct taxes), taas oo keeni karta hoos u dhac ku yimaada dakhliga saafiga ah (disposable income) iii. Natiijada ka dhalanaysa fulinta siyaasadan waxa laga yaabaa in baahida (demand) iyo waxsoosaarku (output) ay hoos u dhacaan taas oo saameyn xun ku leh shaqooyinka iyo koboca dhaqaalaha dhabta ah (real economic growth) ee wakhtiga gaaban (short-term) Monetary policy: i. marka siyaasadan labaad la rabo in loo adeegsado yaraynta sicir-bararka waxa la sameeyaa in dulsaarka “interest rate” kor loo qaado si loo yareeyo amaahaha ay dadyawgu ka qaadanayaan bangiyada. Waxa Iyana hoos u dhacaya maalgalintii waddanka marka sare loo qaado interest rate-ka.
ii. Dulsaarka sare (higher interest rate) waxa uu keeni karaa in sarrifka lacagtu qiimo yeesho gaar ahaan lacagta dalku taas oo keenaysa in yaraanshiyo ku dhaco qiimaha badeecadaha iyo adeegyada lasoo dejiyo iyo sidoo kale hoos u dhac ku yimaada baahida loo qabo wax dhoofinta. iii. Korodhka ku yimaada dulsaarku wuxuu sababayaa hoos u dhac ku yimaada baahida wadareed (AD) ee dhaqaalaha kadibna waxa yaraanaya sicir bararkii. Dulsaarka sare waxa uu dhimaa kharashaadka dadka maxaa yeelay: korodhka dulsaarku wuxuu kordhinayaa kharashka amaahda (cost of borrowing), wuxuuna dadkii ka niyad jabinayaa amaahdii iyo kharashaadkii.
W/Q: Cabdisamad Baashe Xuseen
Bachelor of Economics and Political Science
Email: abdisamedbashe@gmail.com
Tixraac.
a. Books 1. Mankiw- Macroeconomics 5th edition 2. Economics Parkin 6th edition b. Website links 1. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Pages/resources/films/historyofinflation.aspx 2. http://olstudy.blogspot.com/2009/10/different-definitions-of-inflation.html 3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation 4. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/073015/understand-different-types-inflation.asp 5. https://qarannews.com/sicirbararka-inflation-suuqyada-dalka-ka-jira-maxaa-sababay-yaase-ka-masuula/ 6. http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/1605/economics/higher-inflation-and-exchange-rates/ 7 . http://study.com/academy/lesson/demand-pull-inflation-and-the-economics-of-demand.html
